Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

64

236Ṁ12k

2030

29%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Saudi Arabia have nuclear weapons by 2030?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?

Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?

Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?

IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon be used by 2030

Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?

Sort by:

https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-iran-get-a-nuclear-weapon-befo?play=true

manyu boughtṀ175YES

Probability should move now I think.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Surprisingly high! There is probably a reason for the probability being so high, but I've been hearing for the last 25 years that an Iranian nuclear weapon is around the corner, and as of today in 2024 it still hasn't happened.

@WilliamDewey why do you have only 10 mana on NO then?

@RemNi because I've been just betting 10 mana on everything...

@WilliamDewey Completely reasonable as a new user! You might be interested in some of the news discussed in the comments on a related Metaculus question, if you weren't aware of it: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/

Quite the change this month!

Related

People are also trading

Will Saudi Arabia have nuclear weapons by 2030?

+38% 1d54% chance

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?

Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?

Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?

IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon be used by 2030

Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?

Related questions

Will Saudi Arabia have nuclear weapons by 2030?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?

Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?

Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?

IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Will Iran be a democracy in 2030?

Will a nuclear weapon be used by 2030

Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules