Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

65

236Ṁ13k

2030

40%

chance

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1M

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1,000

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https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-iran-get-a-nuclear-weapon-befo?play=true

manyu boughtṀ175YES

Probability should move now I think.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Surprisingly high! There is probably a reason for the probability being so high, but I've been hearing for the last 25 years that an Iranian nuclear weapon is around the corner, and as of today in 2024 it still hasn't happened.

@WilliamDewey why do you have only 10 mana on NO then?

@RemNi because I've been just betting 10 mana on everything...

@WilliamDewey Completely reasonable as a new user! You might be interested in some of the news discussed in the comments on a related Metaculus question, if you weren't aware of it: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/

Quite the change this month!

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