Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets. Resolves NO otherwise. I will not bet on this market.

• Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:

  • Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.

  • Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page

• Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The standard for Iran 'obtaining a nuclear weapon' is further clarified:

  • Iran's status must be comparable to that of the existing, recognized nuclear weapon states.

  • This implies a level of capability and general acknowledgement (as reported by reliable media outlets) similar to countries such as:

  • United States

  • Russia

  • China

  • France

  • United Kingdom

  • India

  • Pakistan

  • Israel

  • North Korea