Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
63
236Ṁ12k2030
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@WilliamDewey Completely reasonable as a new user! You might be interested in some of the news discussed in the comments on a related Metaculus question, if you weren't aware of it: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/
Related questions
Related questions
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
50% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
33% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
38% chance
Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
10% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
66% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
35% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
11% chance
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
6% chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
12% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
14% chance