Surprisingly high! There is probably a reason for the probability being so high, but I've been hearing for the last 25 years that an Iranian nuclear weapon is around the corner, and as of today in 2024 it still hasn't happened.

@WilliamDewey why do you have only 10 mana on NO then?

@RemNi because I've been just betting 10 mana on everything...

@WilliamDewey Completely reasonable as a new user! You might be interested in some of the news discussed in the comments on a related Metaculus question, if you weren't aware of it: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/

Quite the change this month!

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