Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030? | Manifold

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Plus

77

Ṁ6161

2030

71%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count. English Wikipedia, mainspace.

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Any progress?

FWIW they use lots of basic bots already, so imho if they add an AI that at least e.g. detects prose as being probably-a-troll, that should count.

predicts YES

@NicholasKross this question specifies "adding substantive original cited prose"

predicts YES

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik-11fdf1b221ac

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik-332bd66c0db5

https://manifold.markets/market/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik

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