Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2025? | Manifold

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2025?

Plus

51

Ṁ4186

Jan 1

10%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

English Wikipedia, mainspace. If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

This is still too optimistic imo

bought Ṁ750 NO from 21% to 13%

Does it have to be officially sanctioned, or would someone doing it without permission count (assuming they don’t get caught and banned)?

@MitchLindgren https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik it would count.

Related questions

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

-6% 1d30% chance

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Related questions

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules