Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030? | Manifold

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Plus

77

Ṁ6161

2030

71%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count. English Wikipedia, mainspace.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Any progress?

FWIW they use lots of basic bots already, so imho if they add an AI that at least e.g. detects prose as being probably-a-troll, that should count.

predictedYES

@NicholasKross this question specifies "adding substantive original cited prose"

predictedYES

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik-11fdf1b221ac

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik-332bd66c0db5

https://manifold.markets/market/will-ai-be-successfully-editing-wik

Related questions

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

+6% 1d18% chance

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2025?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?

Related questions

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2025?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules