This market forecasts changes in Germany following the AfD’s entry into federal government. Each answer resolves independently.

“Enters government” means an AfD Bundeskanzler and AFD-lead coalition.

Let Y be the calendar year in which this first happens after this market’s preparation. We compare annual figures for Y−1, the last calendar year before entry, with Y+3, the third full calendar year after entry.

Each answer resolves YES if its stated change occurs, and NO otherwise. An unchanged value resolves NO. The comparison dates remain fixed even if the AfD leaves government early.

To allow time for statistics to be published, resolution will use the latest comparable data available on 31 December Y+5—two years after the comparison year. Any revisions to the baseline figures will be included. Both years must use the same methodology and dataset version, so changes in measurement are not mistaken for changes in society. If comparable data are still unavailable by that deadline, the affected answer resolves to 50% as a fallback for missing data, not as a finding of “no change.”

This market measures what changes after the AfD enters government, not whether its policies caused those changes. Other influences, such as global economic conditions, also affect the outcomes.