Resolution Criteria

This is a conditional market about the next Bundestag term (next regular election is expected in 2029).

Resolves YES if §86a of the German Criminal Code (StGB) is repealed or altered and the repeal or change enters into force (i.e., is enacted as law and effective), at any time during that legislative term. The AfD must be part of the ruling coalition during that time.

Resolves NO if no repeal or alteration enters into force by the end of the term.

Resolves N/A if the AfD does not enter the federal government at any point during that term.

Background

§86a has primarily been used to suppress fascist, Nazi, communist, extremist and Russian militarist symbols, and was adopted during the Cold War, most notably affecting the Communist Party of Germany, which was banned as unconstitutional in 1956. In the 2025 election, the AfD achieved its best result in nation-wide German elections with 20.8%, moving into second place, without any other party willing to work with them.

Considerations

Repealing §86a would require constitutional amendment or legislative action. The law is deeply embedded in Germany's post-war constitutional framework designed to prevent the revival of Nazi and other extremist ideologies. Even if the AfD entered government, repealing this provision would face significant legal and political obstacles, including potential constitutional challenges and opposition from other democratic institutions.