Will 2024 be the year when AI capabilities progress from AI hardware scaling hits a wall?
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https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1742306987898200267
"I don't, particularly, predict it, because the future is rarely that predictable -- but if 2024 is the year when AI hardware scaling seems to hit a temporary wall, and further progress past GPT-4 seems to be all about algorithms, this won't surprise me. "
I won't bet. Will resolve based on council judgment in the case of disagreement. May resolve to a percentage, but hopefully not.
Resolves in March so we have more time and perspective to evaluate the preceding year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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