https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1742306987898200267
"I don't, particularly, predict it, because the future is rarely that predictable -- but if 2024 is the year when AI hardware scaling seems to hit a temporary wall, and further progress past GPT-4 seems to be all about algorithms, this won't surprise me. "
I won't bet. Will resolve based on council judgment in the case of disagreement. May resolve to a percentage, but hopefully not.
Resolves in March so we have more time and perspective to evaluate the preceding year.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ108 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ47 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ32 |
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@asmith I don't object. I believe there's intrinsic ambiguity/uncertainty still and would like to hear from anyone who wants to make the case for YES. But I believe it's more NO than YES. No wall hit as of 2024-12-31, despite evidence that we're hitting diminishing returns in early 2025 (not that I think we know that for sure yet either).
I also don't think it would be crazy to say "well, it a little bit, let's say 20%, hit a wall" and resolve-to-PROB at 20%.
In any case, resolving to your own judgment is exactly what traders signed up for. If any of them want to make a case, I think it's worth hearing them out but otherwise, maybe just resolve to NO or NO-ish in another day or so? @traders
@mods Please resolve this market according to your best judgment, or nominate someone whose judgment on this matter you trust. Sorry to create more work for you, but this market got a lot of traders so hopefully it's worth it.