If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?
33
1.6kṀ9632031
81%
Diminishing algorithmic advancements.
75%
Strict regulation
58%
Hardware limitations
57%
Availability of data to train on is a bottleneck
48%
Major supply chain disruptions
22%
Declining job opportunities in the field
12%
Widespread poisoning attacks making it harder to compile good training datasets.
If you have suggestions for a reason other than those already available as an option, please comment and I will add it. I am not allowing free-response to mitigate spam of low-quality answers.
Resolution will be to either YES/NO for each option that qualifies if it is obvious, else resolves to PROB (default : 50%) for an ambiguous "sort of but not fully" situation.
Multiple slowdowns can happen. For example, if supply chain issues cause it but we recover from those and then start running into hardware bottlenecks, both of those options will be resolved to YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
91% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?
79% chance
If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
29% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
7% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
11% chance
Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?
15% chance
Will humans wipe out AI by 2030?
6% chance