Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist as a functioning state by March 31, 2026. Resolution requires that the regime loses effective control over its territory and institutions, with a new government or state structure replacing it. This includes scenarios where the regime is overthrown through popular uprising, military coup, foreign intervention, or civil collapse.

Resolution sources: Official announcements from the UN, major news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC), and statements from the Iranian government or recognized successor authority will serve as primary indicators.

The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic remains in control of Iran's government and territory by March 31, 2026, regardless of the extent of internal unrest, protests, or military strikes.

Background

Iran began 2026 with extensive protests sparked by its weak economy, with demonstrations erupting across all 31 provinces beginning December 28, 2025. The protests, driven largely by economic crisis and the collapse of the rial, became the largest in scale since the 1979 revolution, spreading to over 100 cities. The government responded with violent repression, with death toll estimates ranging from 3,117 to 32,000 depending on the source.

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched coordinated military strikes aimed at regime change, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Early on March 1, Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei's death and declared 40 days of mourning.

Considerations

For a regime to collapse, its main institutions of power must either buckle under pressure or experience huge defections, especially at elite levels—indicators that are not currently present, with no defections reported in the military or security realms. The regime is protected by both a regular army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful parallel military force, along with the Basij, a vast paramilitary militia embedded in every neighborhood. Despite the scale of 2025-26 protests, they have not yet produced the conditions necessary for systemic transformation.

This description was generated by AI.