Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the Iranian regime falls by June 30, 2026. "Regime fall" is defined as the loss of effective governmental control over Iran's territory and institutions, resulting in the collapse of the Islamic Republic's state apparatus. This includes scenarios where:

• The Supreme Leader or core state institutions cease to function

• A successor government or transitional authority replaces the Islamic Republic

• Foreign military intervention results in regime collapse

• Internal state collapse prevents the regime from exercising authority

The market resolves NO if the Islamic Republic maintains governmental control and institutional continuity through June 30, 2026, regardless of the scale of protests, economic crisis, or international pressure.

Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources documenting the regime's fall, including major outlets like Reuters, AP, BBC, and official statements from major governments.

Background

Demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, marking the largest uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Initially sparked by frustration over record-high inflation, food prices, and currency depreciation, the protests quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic government. The Iranian currency halved in value between July 2024 and March 2025, reflecting five years of annual inflation rates above 30%, with food price inflation exceeding 70% in 2025.

The ensuing crackdown resulted in massacres that left thousands of protesters dead, with Human Rights Activists in Iran confirming at least 7,000 deaths. On February 28, 2026, Iran was struck by a joint United States and Israeli military operation with the goal of regime change.

Considerations

Despite recurrent protests, unified opposition to the Iranian regime has been largely absent and security forces have remained loyal to the state. Military analysts warn that without "boots on the ground" or a fully armed organic uprising, the state's deep security apparatus can survive simply by maintaining cohesion, noting that "you cannot facilitate regime change through air strikes alone." The Islamic Republic's government has reestablished control over the country after massive nationwide protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse.

This description was generated by AI.