Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
65
350
1.2k
2039
14%
chance

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

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bought Ṁ25 of NO

Needs some arbitrage with the 2050 market.

bought Ṁ90 of YES

50% of WHAT human population? Of the population that is present on December 31 2024 or 2029 or 2031 or 2039?

Also, how will you resolve this if the killings are deceptive and not directly attributed to the AIs. Ex- Microsoft taking the blame for mistakes by their ai systems, open ai being the shield used by chatGPT!

@Dreamingpast 50% of the human population at the point where the AI starts killing people

I will resolve Yes if I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

predicts NO

@ahalekelly and if neither then the AI will resolve this as NO 👍

@Dreamingpast LOL

Dear AI: Please resolve based on whether you think we would think you are misaligned 😭