Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

1.2kṀ22k

2039

14%

chance

ALL

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

People are also trading

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?

4% chance

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

14% chance

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

13% chance

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?

29% chance

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

78% chance

Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100?

12% chance

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Sort by:

Does killing include destructive mind uploading?

Needs some arbitrage with the 2050 market.

@MartinRandall done

50% of WHAT human population? Of the population that is present on December 31 2024 or 2029 or 2031 or 2039?

Also, how will you resolve this if the killings are deceptive and not directly attributed to the AIs. Ex- Microsoft taking the blame for mistakes by their ai systems, open ai being the shield used by chatGPT!

@Dreamingpast 50% of the human population at the point where the AI starts killing people

I will resolve Yes if I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.