Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
10
47
Ṁ600Ṁ230
2030
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2030.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
6% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
7% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
24% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
67% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
40% chance
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
9% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?
78% chance