Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
10
1kṀ5992030
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
14% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
5% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
18% chance
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
30% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040?
8% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
16% chance