Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
7
395Ṁ2452035
6%
xAI
6%
Deepmind
18%
OpenAI
3%
A university-sponsored research team
41%
A state-sponsored research team
13%
Meta
13%
Other
Resolves to whichever company designed the first model to kill >1 million people. If on such outbreak does not occur, resolves N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@RobertCousineau Something on the order of Baidu/Alibaba/Tencent will resolve to State. If it isn't clear which it is, I'll poll Lesswrong and resolve it to the common consensus.
Related questions
Related questions
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
14% chance
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
4% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
16% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?
29% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040?
8% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
67% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?
80% chance