Will misaligned AI kill 50% of humanity before 2040?

Question

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 8% chance (70 traders, as of Mar 22, 2026).