Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the Trump administration signs a bilateral agreement with Denmark and/or Greenland that grants the United States land or territorial control in Greenland by December 31, 2026. The agreement must be formally signed and publicly announced. As of late January 2026, no formal agreement has been signed, though negotiations are ongoing.

For resolution purposes, the agreement must involve actual transfer of land rights or sovereignty (even if limited to specific parcels), not merely expanded military access or defense cooperation under existing frameworks. Danish officials have stated there have been no direct discussions about granting the U.S. sovereign parcels of land.

Background

Trump announced a "framework of a future deal" on Greenland in January 2026 following a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at Davos. Trump stated he would not use military force in pursuit of the territory. Reports suggest the potential deal may include the U.S. being given sovereignty over small pockets of Greenlandic land for military bases, similar to the UK's arrangement in Cyprus.

Greenland is a self-governing territory of Denmark, and both Denmark and Greenland have repeatedly stated the island is not for sale. In March 2025, Greenland's center-right Demokraatik party won parliamentary elections, with the party advocating for gradual independence. Greenland officials have indicated openness to enhancing the existing bilateral defense partnership.

Considerations

Contemporary international law prioritizes self-determination of peoples over property-based territorial transactions, a fundamental shift from historical precedents like the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska acquisition. Greenland's population is approximately 90 percent Inuit and recognized as an Indigenous people under international law, which serves as a legal shield making purchase legally impossible without direct consent of its people. Greenland can freely decide to change its status through a referendum, but any change requires negotiations with Denmark and approval by the Danish parliament.

This description was generated by AI.