Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between June 1, 2025, and June 30, 2025, inclusive, there is credible reporting from at least two independent, reputable news organizations confirming that Israel has conducted a military strike targeting Iran's nuclear facilities. The strike must be explicitly aimed at nuclear sites and not solely at other military or civilian targets. If no such reports are available by July 1, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 12, 2025, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated due to concerns over Iran's nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently declared Iran in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations, marking the first such development in nearly two decades. In response, Iran announced countermeasures, including the planned opening of a third uranium enrichment plant and upgrading centrifuges at its Fordow facility. (reuters.com)

U.S. intelligence agencies have indicated that Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities within the coming months. Reports suggest that Israel has assured the United States it will not undertake such a strike unless current diplomatic negotiations fail. (axios.com)

Iran has warned that any Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities could strengthen its resolve to develop a nuclear weapon or withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Verification Sources: For the market to resolve to "Yes," reports must come from reputable news organizations such as Reuters, The Associated Press, BBC, or similar outlets.

• Scope of Strike: The strike must specifically target nuclear facilities. Attacks on other military or civilian targets without evidence of targeting nuclear sites will not satisfy the resolution criteria.

• Timing: Only strikes occurring within the specified date range (June 1–30, 2025) will be considered.

• Official Confirmation: While official statements from Israeli or Iranian authorities can contribute to the assessment, independent verification from news organizations is required for resolution.

Given the rapidly evolving geopolitical situation, traders should monitor multiple news sources for updates on potential military actions and diplomatic developments between Israel and Iran.