Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?
Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?
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1kṀ15kresolved Jun 14
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A nuclear site is any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil.
Such a strike must be widely assumed to be perpetrated by Israel and must cause clear physical damage as a direct goal of the attack. It must take place after the creation of this market and before 01/01/2027. Will resolve according to time the attack took place, not time of reporting.
If there is ambiguity I will use my personal best judgement. I will not bet on this market.
Market resolving at the end of 2025:
https://manifold.markets/DanielFox9fff/will-israel-strike-irans-nuclear-fa?r=RGFuaWVsRm94OWZmZg
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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