This market assesses whether Iran will launch a direct military attack on Israeli territory before the end of 2025. A 'Yes' resolution requires credible reports from major news outlets confirming such an event. Indirect actions through proxies or cyberattacks do not count. Source

• Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that an attempt by Iran to launch a direct military attack on Israeli territory is sufficient for a YES resolution. The attack does not need to be successful (e.g., in causing damage or hitting intended targets) to count, provided all other criteria in the market description are met.