Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?
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19
Ṁ2320
2026
14%
chance

Will the State of Israel provoke or directly cause the current regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran to collapse and be replaced by a new government by the end of 2025?

The Islamic Republic of Iran has ruled Iran since 1979. It has survived a war with Iraq and several popular revolts that it has brutally suppressed.

Israel can take direct military action against the regime such as an air strike on economic targets, or it can pursue covert operations to destabilize or outright destroy the regime.

I believe it will be difficult to disguise Israeli involvement in either case. Even if the Israeli actions are not the final actions that lead to regime change this will resolve as yes.

If anyone has additional questions or alternative hypotheses to propose please do so in the comments.

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I have added further clarification in the description.

This is kinda vague. Say Israel targets some Iranian oil infrastructure, which crashes the economy leading to a revolution, does that count?

@ShakedKoplewitz counterfactually, would Iranian govt collapse anyway if not for that strike on oil infra? Depends on what exactly would happen before the revolution.

@ICRainbow right, but in practice it's pretty hard to tell after the fact.

can you define whether a change in president within the system counts as ‘toppling the regime’?

@OP The mullahs no longer running the country.