Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2025?
346
10kṀ400k
resolved Jun 14
Resolved
YES

A nuclear site is any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil.

Such a strike must be widely assumed to be perpetrated by Israel and must cause clear physical damage as a direct goal of the attack. It must take place after the creation of this market and before 01/01/2026. Will resolve according to time the attack took place, not time of reporting.

If there is ambiguity I will use my personal best judgement. I will not bet on this market.

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gg @Dynd

Congratulations to the traders who kept this market so high over the past 7 months - good call!

@Daniel_MC Proud to be the second-largest YES holder.

@Daniel_MC All me

@Dynd Well you are the largest. Congrats.

@Daniel_MC just read the palantir stuff and be on /r thiel watch on reddit

Damage to Natanz nuclear facility confirmed via satellite imagery. https://x.com/thegoodisis/status/1933539314148823467

@DanielFox9fff can this be resolved?

Natanz has been destroyed

@brianwang the whole city?

I need to know why this became a market in the first place.

@geoppls cus iran is bad

For the moment I'm holding out on a resolution until things are clearer, even if that takes a little while. Everyone stay safe out there.

Israel is planning to carry out multiple rounds of attacks against Iran, an Israeli source told CNN.

“This is not a one-day attack,” the source said.

Can someone make a "When will Iran strike back" market so I could know if I can go ahead with my planned weekend? 😭

It's official now. The objectives are nuclear facilities and the rest of the military.

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

An Israeli military official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity to comply with protocol, said the strikes in Tehran were aimed at targets related to Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian regime’s long-range missile capabilities. The official added that Israel was conducting dozens of strikes in multiple areas of Iran.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/12/world/israel-iran-us-nuclear?smid=nytcore-android-share

There's still ambiguity whether 1) the strikes were on nuclear facilities & whether they 2) caused "clear physical damage as a direct goal of the attack"

I'd have to assume 1, we'll find out about 2 soon I'm sure

filled a Ṁ100 NO at 82% order

@FergusArgyll I'm seeing reports that they were on the personal residences of Iranian scientists, not the nuclear facilities themselves, but yeah, well have to wait and find out

The Israeli Air Force conducted a strike in Iran on Thursday, according to two sources with knowledge of the operation. It's not yet clear what Israel is targeting, but explosions were reported in Tehran.

Behind the scenes: The U.S. notified several of its allies in private on Thursday that Israeli strikes were imminent and made clear it was not involved, one of the sources said.

The intrigue: Before the operation became public, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee tweeted that he was at the embassy in Jerusalem and "will remain here all night," adding: "Pray for the peace of Jerusalem."

https://www.axios.com/2025/06/13/israel-strike-iran-trump-nuclear-talks

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

I believe this happened

@FergusArgyll Don't resolve yet, just updating you

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