Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM UTC on June 30, 2025, there is credible reporting from reputable news organizations confirming that Iran has conducted a bombing attack on U.S. military bases located in the Middle East. The attack must involve the use of explosive devices delivered by aircraft, missiles, or drones, resulting in damage to the base infrastructure or personnel. Indirect attacks through proxy groups will not count unless there is clear evidence of direct Iranian involvement. If no such attack is reported by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of June 23, 2025, tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated significantly. On June 22, 2025, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, causing substantial damage. In response, Iran has vowed retaliation, with Iranian officials indicating that U.S. military bases in the region are potential targets. (time.com) Historically, Iranian-backed militias have attacked U.S. bases in the Middle East, but direct Iranian military action against U.S. installations would mark a significant escalation. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Given the current geopolitical climate and recent military actions, the likelihood of Iranian retaliation against U.S. military assets in the Middle East has increased. However, Iran's strategic decisions may involve indirect methods, such as utilizing proxy forces, cyberattacks, or targeting allied assets, rather than direct bombing of U.S. bases. Traders should monitor official statements from both Iranian and U.S. authorities, as well as reports from credible news sources, to assess the probability of such an event occurring before the end of June 2025.