100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026? | Manifold

100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?

63

Ṁ100Ṁ6k

Apr 7

15%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 30, 2026, there are at least 100 US troops KIA or DOW, as listed by the DoD, attributable to conflict with Iran.

Update 2026-03-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may extend the resolution date beyond April 30, 2026 if there is evidence that the full death toll has not yet been officially released by that date.

Market context

Israel-Iran Conflict

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I have extended the close date to April 7th just to see if any additional information will come out.

ny bad

@DontGoHome Will you extend the resolution date if there is evidence suggesting the death toll has not been fully released by April 30th?

@Chumchulum Good question. If no one objects with a good reason why not then yes, that seems like a sensible thing to do.

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Related questions

Will US or Israeli ground forces enter Iranian territory by April 7, 2026?

Will the US military control at least ten percent of Iran by area at any point during 2026?

Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026?

Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026?

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

How many Iranians will be killed by it's regime in 2026?

When will the US+allies kill more Iranians than Iran?

Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

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