Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, the United States conducts a nuclear strike against Iran. A nuclear strike is defined as the detonation of a nuclear weapon by U.S. military forces targeting Iranian territory. The resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or credible reporting from major news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, or The New York Times.

Background

As of June 20, 2025, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated significantly. In February 2025, President Donald Trump reinstated the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to compel Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement and prevent its development of nuclear weapons. This policy included heightened economic sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports. (whitehouse.gov)

In June 2025, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran. President Trump has indicated that the U.S. is considering military intervention alongside Israel, with a decision expected within two weeks. (ft.com)

Considerations

While the U.S. has a history of military interventions in the Middle East, the use of nuclear weapons has been unprecedented since World War II. Any decision to employ nuclear force would have profound geopolitical and humanitarian implications, potentially triggering widespread condemnation and escalating regional conflicts. Traders should monitor official communications from the U.S. government and reputable news sources for developments related to this situation.