Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ185
Dec 31
8%
chance
8

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, in any Levada Center poll published before the close date, the sum of respondents who "definitely" or "rather" support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" is no more than 50% of all respondents.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Close date

This market will close at 23:59:00 UTC on 31 December 2026 if it does not resolve YES sooner.

Clarifications

As the resolution of this market is unlikely to be subjective, I may trade in this market.

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Info for traders: Levada polls this question every month. The lowest level of support ever recorded was 68% in February 2022, last month it was 73%

@a_l_e_x Are they only polling Russians in Russia, because I see an obvious source of bias there...

@WilliamGunn naturally, when tasked with surveying the population of Russia, one tends to proceed by surveying the population of Russia, rather than surveying the population of any country that is not Russia

@a_l_e_x Do you contend that there are no Russians living outside of Russia?

@WilliamGunn I contend that polls of any country – be it Russia, Ukraine, the US, Australia or somewhere else – generally survey the population of that country and not its diaspora.

@a_l_e_x Russia is a country. Russians are not.

@WilliamGunn the title of this market is clear enough as it is without making it longer and/or clunkier just to appease one persnickety individual.

If this is a real concern of yours, and you are not just being deliberately painful to me in particular, I expect that you'll make the same point in each of these markets too, since Gallup typically polls adults living in the US rather than "Americans" wherever they may be:

/cash/will-1-of-americans-believe-technol-ZcsLInqCuy

/cash/will-a-quarter-of-americans-morally-IhysQc8t2Z

/cash/will-5-of-americans-believe-technol-nNlCIscc2L

/Bayesian/what-of-americans-will-cite-compute

/cash/will-americans-confidence-in-newspa-s52yzppyQy

/cash/will-abortion-be-more-morally-accep-Apc2NlQyEh

/cash/will-americans-believe-ai-does-more-5dR2zAEzN6

/cash/will-americans-confidence-in-the-su-EClqP5dpyZ

/cash/will-americans-overall-confidence-i-8pIICsnAlR

/cash/will-americans-confidence-in-large-AANOn5PlIh

/cash/will-americans-confidence-in-the-pr-SAPq0dz5qO

Until you've had a good whinge in each and every one of those markets, I'm not inclined to take you seriously. I hope your own markets stand up to the level of scrutiny you apply to others.

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