Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter. Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction. Original prediction: "Russia and Ukraine reach some kind of cease-fire or armistice" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post. If he doesn't publish one, I will resolve based on the outcome.