Will Putin still be in power by the end of 2026?
41
270
770
2027
69%
chance

Resolves YES if Vladimir Putin is still in power at 11:59 PM on December 31st, 2026.

Resolves NO if Vladimir Putin is:

1- Deposed via coup or loses re-election.

2- De facto out of power due to illness, injury, or other extraordinary circumstances, being replaced by an Acting President.

3- Putin dies, regardless of cause of death.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

Resolves YES if Vladimir Putin is still in power at 11:59 PM on December 31st, 2026.

Resolves NO if Vladimir Putin is:

1- Deposed via coup or loses re-election.

2- De facto out of power due to illness, injury, or other extraordinary circumstances, being replaced by an Acting President.

3- Putin dies, regardless of cause of death.

This is a case where market conditions are making the resolution criteria less clear. Since I presume you intended to include the scenario below under the NO resolution umbrella.

Let's say that Putin decides to retire before the deadline. Does this resolve as N/A? After all it's not YES, because he won't be 'in power'. And it won't be NO because:
1- He wouldn't get deposed via a coup or lost a re-election.
2- Him leaving wouldn't be due to illness, injury or other extraordinary circumstances. Retiring can hardly be called extraordinary.
3- He wouldn't die.

Or let's say that he leaves due to illness, but isn't replaced by an acting president, but a proper president right away. Does it resolve N/A then, as well?

@JamesColiar Both scenarios resolve in NO as Putin is not in power. Any situation that results in him being out of power at the time of resolution (even if seemingly temporarily).

More related questions