Will Americans' overall confidence in US institutions decline in 2026, according to Gallup?

Question

Gallup polls Americans on their confidence in American institutions, publishing results every summer (see 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021).

Taking an average, Gallup also tracks overall confidence in US institutions, which have declined from an all-time high when polling began in 1979 of 48% to an all-time low in 2023 of 26%.

Will Gallup polling show a decline (i.e. 27% or less) in Americans' average confidence in US institutions in 2026?

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (19 traders, as of Jul 20, 2026).

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