Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement or peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed and takes effect by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming the agreement's existence and implementation.

The agreement must include a cessation of active hostilities. Technical or temporary pauses in fighting do not qualify. If a ceasefire is signed but subsequently violated before year-end, the market still resolves YES if the agreement was formally executed.

Background

Russia's nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine has resulted in approximately 1,100,000 Russian casualties and 400,000 Ukrainian killed or injured. As of January 13, 2026, Russian forces occupied 116,250 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, constituting 19.26% of Ukraine.

Officials from Ukraine, Russia and the United States held trilateral meetings in late January 2026, marking rare direct engagement. Ukraine's security guarantees terms were finalized, and a deal was nearly ready on economic recovery after the war. However, talks were described as "constructive and positive" but resulted in no breakthrough.

Considerations

Russia has insisted there can be no ceasefire until a comprehensive settlement is agreed and has ruled out any deployment of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil. Putin remains reluctant to accept the compromise peace the US is proposing and instead needs either total victory in Ukraine or indefinite conflict. Meanwhile, Kyiv has been wary of any ceasefire that it fears could provide time for Russia to regroup and attack again.

This description was generated by AI.