Resolution criteria
This market will resolve OVER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 500 square kilometres in October 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve UNDER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to less than 500 square kilometres in October 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 500 square kilometres in October 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will be voided if the market creator determines that methodological inconsistencies between the resolution sources would affect the resolution.
Resolution sources
The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following seven sources:
Should one, two or three of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within four days of the market closing, the median of the available estimates will be used.
Should four or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within seven days of the market closing, the market will be voided.
Interpretation principles
The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.
Close date
This market will close at 21:00:00 UTC on 31 October 2025.
Previous results
/a_l_e_x/net-territory-gained-by-russia-in-s resolved UNDER.
/a_l_e_x/net-territory-gained-by-russia-in-a resolved UNDER.
/a_l_e_x/net-territory-gained-by-russia-in-j resolved OVER.
Further information
I will not trade in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ280 | |
| 2 | Ṁ54 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 |
Manifold has a glitch where edited comments aren't always shown in their updated form, so here's a screenshot of the above:
With 5 out of 7 sources above the 500km² threshold, I'm resolving OVER as the median can be no lower than 587km².
The November market is here: /a_l_e_x/net-territory-gained-by-russia-in-n
And I've also made an annual market with a different format:
Note: This is the second month in a row that DeepState has been a crazy outlier, but I will continue to use it as a source in the monthly markets. The beauty of using the median is that one source being wildly wrong is less likely to affect the result.