Resolution criteria
This market will resolve OVER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 500 square kilometres in November 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve UNDER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to less than 500 square kilometres in November 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 500 square kilometres in November 2025 according to the resolution sources.
Resolution sources
The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following seven sources:
Should one, two or three of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within four days of the market closing, the median of the available estimates will be used.
Should four or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within seven days of the market closing, the market will be voided.
Interpretation principles
The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.
Further information
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Changes for future markets (December 2025 onwards):
Black Bird Group has been added as an additional resolution source
If ISW doesn't provide an estimate, one will be obtained from Russia Matters (which uses ISW data)
The creator will now wait up to 14 days (instead of 7 days) for sources to report before resolving, though the market can still resolve earlier if the result is mathematically certain
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,310 | |
| 2 | Ṁ125 | |
| 3 | Ṁ67 | |
| 4 | Ṁ34 | |
| 5 | Ṁ33 |
AMK Mapping: 725.93km²
LostArmour: 700.25km²
Creamy_caprice: 506.54km²
DeepState: 505km²
Divgen: TBA
Suriyakmaps: TBA
ISW: TBA
That's a majority for OVER.
I've made a few changes for next month's market:
Another pro-Ukraine source (Black Bird Group) has been added to the resolution sources. This slightly upsets the balance of pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine sources I've maintained until now, and I may rectify the imbalance in the future. For now, though, more data = good.
If ISW doesn't provide an estimate, I will obtain one from Russia Matters, which uses ISW data. (I promise to convert square miles to square kilometres correctly!)
If necessary, I will now wait 14 days for sources to report before I resolve. As always, the market can still resolve before then if the result is mathematically certain.