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MANIFOLD
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in November 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ26
Nov 30
40%
chance

Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (x.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of August 2026 (from Black Bird Group (@Black_BirdGroup) on X ):

If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by December 1st, this resolves NA

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