Resolution criteria

This market will resolve OVER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 400 square kilometres for July 2025 according to the resolution sources.

This market will resolve UNDER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to less than 400 square kilometres for July 2025 according to the resolution sources.

This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 400 square kilometres for July 2025 according to the resolution sources.

This market will resolve N/A if the market creator determines that methodological inconsistencies between the resolution sources would affect the resolution.

Resolution sources

The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following six sources:

• LostArmour

• Suriyakmaps/HeyHeyHayden

• Creamy caprice

• AMK Mapping

• ISW

• DeepState

Should one or two of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within five days of the market closing, the median of the four or five available estimates will be used.

Should three or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within seven days of the market closing, the market will resolve N/A.

Interpretation principles

• The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.

• No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.

Close date

This market will close at 21:00:00 UTC on 31 July 2025.

Further information and clarifications

I will not trade in this market.