Resolution criteria
This market concerns Russia's net territorial gain (in square kilometres) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2025. It will resolve to the median estimate obtained from the following five sources:
Should one or more of the resolution sources fail to provide necessary data within seven days of the market closing, the median of the available estimates will be used.
Interpretation principles
The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.
Clarifications
Gains and losses in the Kursk and Belgorod regions are included in this market.
I will not trade in this market.
1,000ISW assessed that Russia gained 4,831 sq km within Ukraine's 1991 borders, plus 473 sq km in Kursk Oblast, for a total of 5,304 sq km.
Creamy caprice estimated that Russia gained 5,190 sq km within Ukraine's 1991 borders. With an extra 561 sq km gained in Kursk, the total is 5,751 sq km.
According to LostArmour, Russia's net territorial gain was 6,209 sq km (including Kursk).
The annual estimates from AMK and Suriyak/HHH excluded Kursk and Belgorod, so I added up their monthly estimates for the year. The final figures are 6,526 sq km for AMK and 6,044 sq km for Suriyak, the latter being the median.
The market resolves to 6,044.
For the sake of transparency, here are Suriyak's monthly estimates via HeyHeyHayden: