[Free mana] What combination of parties will form executive government after the next Australian federal election?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ797

2028

45%

Labor

26%

Liberal + National

10%

Labor + Greens

Liberal + National + One Nation

Labor + Liberal

Other

One Nation

1.4%

One Nation + National

1.4%

Labor + Liberal + National

1.4%

Labor + One Nation

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the party or coalition of parties that forms executive government following the next general election for the Australian House of Representatives.

For the purpose of this market, a party is in executive government if at least one of its members holds a ministerial portfolio in the first ministry list published after the election.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, an assistant minister does not hold a ministerial portfolio.

It is likely that a combination of parties forming executive government will have a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and a coalition agreement of some kind. These are not requirements of this market, however.

Independent MPs will be ignored for the purpose of this market. For example, if Andrew Wilkie (Independent) were to hold a ministerial portfolio under a Labor executive government, the market would resolve 'Labor'.

For the purpose of this market, the Liberal National Party of Queensland is not a distinct party; its members are Liberals or Nationals.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.

Market context

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I'm giving 30 mana to the first 15 people who trade in this market and reply to this comment

bought Ṁ20 YES

@a_l_e_x done! I support all commonwealth political markets lll

@a_l_e_x Sure give me the mana

I still don't know to what extent we want to support the comment-bounty-boosting of markets but for now we are mostly letting it slide, especially as you are giving 30mana and it isn't one of the unnecessarily unlinked multichoice markets. We used to have the feed-boost which worked similarly (pay 10 mana per user that clicks, the user clicking receives 3), maybe we will need to revive something like that, but we are planning to modify content discovery regardless

I genuinely want to support the market irrespective of any mana bounty tho

bought Ṁ10 YES

@a_l_e_x replied

@Gen yeah do tell me if you'd like me to stop the bounties. The algorithm makes them rather effective right now so creators are naturally going to offer them.

I remember the mini boosts, it felt like they didn't do anything since people could claim the reward without even opening the market. But I like the general idea!