Which party or coalition will win the primary vote in the 2026 Victorian state election?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the party or coalition that wins the highest percentage of the statewide first-preference (primary) vote in the Legislative Assembly (Lower House) at the 2026 Victorian state election, scheduled for 28 November 2026.

Resolution will be based on the official results published by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) or a consensus of credible media outlets.

If the Liberals and Nationals in Victoria cease to be in coalition before the election, their individual vote totals will still be added together to determine resolution of this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Liberal-National Coalition, followed by Labor Party and One Nation are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Oct 22, 2026).

Resolution criteria

People are also trading

Related questions