Resolution criteria

The election will be held on 7 November 2026. The market resolves to whichever main party (National or Labour) forms the government following the election. A party must demonstrate to the Governor-General that they have the confidence of the House by securing a majority of votes in a confidence motion and getting a budget through parliament. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Governor-General and the New Zealand government regarding which party leader is appointed Prime Minister. See: https://www.beehive.govt.nz/ and https://gg.govt.nz/

Background

The centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, currently governs in coalition with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opposition is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Labour and the Greens announced in early February 2026 that they would work together during the election and in a future government. Voters will elect 120 members under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system.

Considerations

Under MMP, multiple political parties typically need to enter into arrangements to secure government. Either National or Labour could potentially form a government with support from smaller parties (ACT, New Zealand First, Greens, or Te Pāti Māori). The market resolves to the party that leads the government formation, regardless of coalition partners.