Parties with ministers inside cabinet are considered part of forming a government. Parties who do not have ministers inside cabinet are not considered part of the government for the resolution of this question. So, in 2020, a similar question would only resolve positively for Labour. In 2023, it would resolve positively for National, NZ First, and ACT.
I will add new parties on request from 1 January 2026 if they are officially registered, or as I judge to be worthwhile adding. Parties included so far are those that ran in both 2020 and 2023.
If no election is held in 2026, the question will resolve positively for the first election after 2026. If an election is held before 2026, this question will not resolve for that election.
Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no government is formed after the 2026 election and a new election is called, resolution will be delayed until a government forms after that subsequent election. The market will resolve based on which parties form the government following the post-election negotiations of that later election.
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@NcyRocks If there's a new election followed by post-election negotiations to form a government, I will wait for the outcome of post-election negotiations to resolve the question and it will be resolved based on the outcome of those negotiations. Broadly I will wait until a government forms after that election to resolve the question. All parties will resolve no if some government forms that involves none of the parties.