Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)?
5
Ṁ110Ṁ137
Sep 2
31%
chance

Currently around 3% of all non-contributing readsrs of wikipedia donate. Will tbis increase to a percetage pf at least 4% by 2026?

Data Source: Wikipedia Foundation

Market context
Wikipedia
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in April 2026?
30% chance
Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors increase by 2030?
34% chance
Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030?
64% chance
Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in May 2026?
26% chance
Will Wikipedia be up at wikipedia.org in 2030?
94% chance
Will Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
67% chance
Will Wikipedia show third-party ads before 2030?
7% chance
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
23% chance
Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?
30% chance
At the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
56% chance
Sort by:

@mods Can this resolve?

@JimHays do we have a source of where they publish this info?

@JimHays I sure hope no one bought Yes.

@JimHays https://wikimediafoundation.org/who-we-are/financial-reports/#a1-2024-2025 this seems to be the newest report (and there's no mention of donation per person vs. total), so I don't think this can resolve yet. I've reopened the market

People are also trading

Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in April 2026?
30% chance
Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors increase by 2030?
34% chance
Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030?
64% chance
Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in May 2026?
26% chance
Will Wikipedia be up at wikipedia.org in 2030?
94% chance
Will Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
67% chance
Will Wikipedia show third-party ads before 2030?
7% chance
Will I be mentioned by name in a Wikipedia article before 2028?
23% chance
Will Wikipedia accept prediction markets as a source before 2030?
30% chance
At the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
56% chance