Definition of an AI-Generated Song:
A song where AI has played a significant role in either:
Composition (melody, harmony, chord progression)
Lyrics writing
Vocal or instrumental performance (e.g., via vocal synthesis or virtual instruments created primarily by AI)
Significant Role: For the song to qualify, AI must have contributed in a way that is more than minimal. This means:
A substantial portion of the lyrics or melody must have been generated by AI, or
The primary vocal or instrumental performance must be AI-generated in a way that it's a key feature of the song.
Major Music Award:
The song must win one of the following awards:
A Grammy Award in a top category like Record of the Year, Album of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist where the song or artist using AI is recognized.
An MTV Video Music Award (VMA) for categories like Video of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist if the video or artist involves significant AI contribution.
A Billboard Music Award in categories such as Top Streaming Song, Top Selling Song, or Top Hot 100 Song.
An American Music Award (AMA) in categories like Favorite Song – Pop/Rock, Favorite Album – Pop/Rock, or Favorite Artist – New Artist if AI played a significant role.
Timeline:
The award ceremony must take place on or before December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on the date the award is officially awarded, not the date of nomination or announcement.
Verification:
Public acknowledgment by the artist, record label, or award committee of the AI's role in the song's creation at the time of winning or shortly before must be documented.
Official award announcements, credible news sources, or statements from music industry professionals can serve as verification.
Disqualification:
Songs where AI was used only for production or mixing without contributing significantly to the creative elements will not count.
If there's a dispute about the extent of AI involvement, the market will resolve based on the most credible evidence available, potentially involving expert analysis from music technology fields.
Resolution Date:
The market will resolve on Dec 31, 2026, based on all awards given in 2025/26 or any announced winners before the end of 2026.
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@fstonemeyer I get the hesitation, but I think that view overestimates how unified and resistant the industry really is. Once a song becomes big enough and the AI involvement is openly acknowledged, awards bodies tend to follow culture rather than block it—just like they eventually did with heavy sampling, autotune, and other once-controversial tools.
Excellent market. Do you plan to create more markets for years after 2027?
@TimothyBandors Alright, I’ve made a real-life bet on YES for this exact question. If I lose, I’ll have to do something embarrassing, but I’ve set the date for 2029.