Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a fully AI-generated song reaches the top 10 of Billboard's Hot 100 chart by December 31, 2026. The song must be created entirely by AI without human vocal performance, songwriting, or production contributions. Resolution will be verified through Billboard's official chart data at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and confirmed through Billboard's reporting on AI-generated music. If Billboard's classification of a song as "fully AI-generated" is ambiguous, the market creator's determination will be final.

Background

A song generated by artificial intelligence topped the charts in the US for the first time in November 2025, as Breaking Rust landed the Number 1 spot on Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. However, this was a genre-specific digital sales chart, not the main Hot 100. Xania Monet, an AI-assisted project, debuted on Hot Gospel Songs with "Let Go, Let Go" (which climbed to No. 3 on the chart dated Oct. 25) and Hot R&B Songs with "How Was I Supposed to Know?" (No. 20 peak). Notably, fully AI-generated works, such as songs created entirely by platforms like Suno or Udio, are not eligible for copyright, while AI-assisted works are evaluated individually based on human contributions.

Considerations

The distinction between "fully AI-generated" and "AI-assisted" is critical. Most charting AI music to date involves human contributions—lyrics, production decisions, or vocal direction. Deezer receives roughly 50,000 fully AI-generated songs daily, but just because an AI-generated track makes or tops a Billboard chart doesn't mean it's very popular; Breaking Rust's track "Walk My Walk" amassed approximately 3,000 track downloads in the week ending Nov. 6. The Hot 100 requires sustained streaming and sales performance across multiple metrics, making it significantly harder to reach than specialized charts.

Billboard Hot 100™

THE WEEK’S MOST POPULAR CURRENT SONGS ACROSS ALL GENRES, RANKED BY STREAMING ACTIVITY DATA BY ONLINE MUSIC SOURCES TRACKED BY LUMINATE, RADIO AIRPLAY AUDIENCE IMPRESSIONS AS MEASURED BY MEDIABASE AND PROVIDED BY LUMINATE AND SALES DATA AS COMPILED BY LUMINATE.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if a fully AI-generated song reaches the top 10 of Billboard's Hot 100 chart by December 31, 2026. The song must be created entirely by AI without human vocal performance, songwriting, or production contributions. Resolution will be verified through Billboard's official chart data at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/. If a song's classification as "fully AI-generated" is ambiguous, the market creator's determination will be final.

Background

A fully AI-generated song topped Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart in November 2025, though this is a genre-specific digital sales chart rather than the main Hot 100. AI-assisted projects like Xania Monet have charted on Hot Gospel Songs and Hot R&B Songs, but these involved human contributions. Fully AI-generated works created by platforms like Suno or Udio are not eligible for copyright protection.

Considerations

The distinction between "fully AI-generated" and "AI-assisted" is critical, as most charting AI music to date involves human contributions. The Hot 100 requires sustained streaming and sales performance across multiple metrics, making it significantly harder to reach than specialized charts.