Will an AI-conducted archaeological analysis uncover a previously unknown civilization by 2030?
Will an AI-conducted archaeological analysis uncover a previously unknown civilization by 2030?
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What's our threshold for a "civilization" here? Are stone tools or potsherds made in a previously unknown style sufficient here, or do we need to find evidence of monumental architecture or something?
This is a great series of markets. For me, this one calls back to "Use of Weapons" by Iain M Banks where a similar technique is used to locate lost poems of a venerated poet.
@StrayClimb I just finished consider Phlebas, haven't reached this book yet, but looking forward to it!
I actually think about this a lot. At the very least AI should be used to decide where to start digging. The future of archaeology is going to be dominated by amateurs IMO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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