Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?
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To elaborate on the “solely responsible” part, training data created by humans is permitted, but the AI must create a novel structure or insight with human assistance limited to inititalization and prompting. The AI itself cannot simply BE the breakthrough, and the breakthrough must go beyond the structure of the AI that creates it.
This question resolves to YES if an AI has created a significant breakthrough in AI by the start of 2031, otherwise it resolves to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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