Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?
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18
Ṁ412
2031
76%
chance

To elaborate on the “solely responsible” part, training data created by humans is permitted, but the AI must create a novel structure or insight with human assistance limited to inititalization and prompting. The AI itself cannot simply BE the breakthrough, and the breakthrough must go beyond the structure of the AI that creates it.

This question resolves to YES if an AI has created a significant breakthrough in AI by the start of 2031, otherwise it resolves to NO.

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There was already a paper about this which resulted in the Lion algorithm as an apparently better alternative to Adam parameter optimization. Can't remember the title or which lab produced the paper, though.

@CarterHinsley I think in practice it didn't catch on though, I wouldn't call it a breakthrough

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