If there is ever a cure to aging, what is it most likely to resemble?
35
588
1.8k
2059
29%
Gene therapy
22%
Uploading
16%
Other
9%
Nanobots
8%
Fixing the seven types of damage that SENS / Aubrey de Grey target
7%
Telomerase
5%
Cybernetics
3%
Yamanaka factors

I am unsure how best to run a market like this, but if there is a cure to ageing, if such a thing is possible, then this market resolves to whatever option or combination of options most closely resembles the first valid cure.

I will not consider any options that were added after the cure will first be publicly known.

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What are some general low-cost/effort ways to improve mental and physical health, regardless of when aging is solved? I made a free response market for this. I get nothing out of it but good tips. Submitting your answer will make you eligible for trader bonus if people trade on it, and hopefully there will be some good discussion.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10141718/

Even if we assume nanobots to be the correct answer, how would they function other than by delivering gene therapy?

sufficiently advanced nanobots can probably do anything that doesn't violate the laws of physics?

Nanotechnology is a general purpose technology based on the recognition of particles that are less than the size of 100 nanometers. Nanorobotics is the study of robotics at the nanometer scale, and includes robots that are able to perform tasks at the nanoscale. The emerging field of nanorobotics is concerned with the design, programming, manufacturing, and control of robots at the nanometer scale.

Nanotechnology capable of effective gene therapy will be available much earlier than nanobots. Nanobots could cure aging, but the technology doesn't need to be that advanced.

@SemioticRivalry they can't protect earth from extinction by asteroids, even though it is possible (even for humans) to turn earth into a planet that does so.

To be clear, this market is about biological aging

sold Ṁ98 of Uploading NO

@firstuserhere So not uploading or cybernetics?

@MartinRandall it's not clear that they should be ruled out. Perhaps uploading turns out to be crucial for reconstruction of something

@firstuserhere uploading has nothing to do with aging though. you can upload people before they die, and download them before they die.

bought Ṁ10 of Other YES

Does extinction count as a cure for aging?

@MartinRandall haha no, I don't call someone dying from pancreatic cancer as being cured of pancreatic cancer. Extinction seems more of a cure for living, than aging

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sold Ṁ210 of Uploading NO

@firstuserhere resolves n/a if no cure for aging? Or is that under "other"?

@MartinRandall given that the question is phrased to be conditional, n/a seems like a fair choice, no loss to traders.

bought Ṁ15 of Gene therapy YES

Almost certainly gene therapy, as prevailing models of biological aging involve damage to the cellular genome or the accumulation of replication errors over time.

Nanobots might help if they can repair this damage, but then it would just simply be gene therapy by other means.

bought Ṁ15 of Gene therapy YES

@NicoDelon you think this might facilitate better discussion?