By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
350
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3.6k
2029
10%
chance

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There is already a "cure" for "aging" its called death.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 11% to 10%

@JosephReagan By this reasoning, isn't death the cure to every disease in existence?

predicts NO
predicts NO

https://twitter.com/StoopMensch/status/1734240901676015623

The biggest blackpill on current longevity research is that there aren’t any 30 year old lab mice

You’re telling me you want humans to live forever and you can’t even get a mouse to midlife crisis yet??

bought Ṁ1,000 NO at 10%
bought Ṁ250 of NO

Such medicine should have already started testing to be FDA approved by this market closing. We're no where close.

sold Ṁ1,617 of NO

The resolution criteria still isn’t clear, so I’m removing my bet.

predicts NO

A LETTER FROM LAURA DEMING

THIS IS THE DECADE IN WHICH WE GET DRUGS DIRECTLY FOR LONGEVITY INTO THE CLINIC

Sept 2023

predicts NO

@LeoSpitz Sounds a bit bullshitty to me. We already have drugs that happen to consistently provide small lifespan extensions for basically everybody (e.g. statins). So yeah, we might get some more, nice, but not a fundamental change. I also don't see how you run a trial demonstrating longevity benefits that are not directly from treating a condition in <10 years. You literally have to wait for people to die of old age so unless your target population is already very old and ill this is going to take a loooong time.

predicts NO

@MartinModrak Yes, it is impossible to test a cure for aging in 7 years. I don’t understand how this market is still so out of touch with reality.

predicts YES

@capybara It’s not impossible. You can easily see age reversal very quickly via epigenetic reprogramming.

predicts NO

@Odamaron Age reversal isn’t the same as a cure for aging. If the “cure” results in cancer development, then it’s not a cure. Another example: if the “cure” only works for 10 years, then it’s not a cure for aging. But you can’t know unless you wait and see.

predicts NO

@capybara it kind of is though

predicts NO

@jeremiahsamroo So if I stop someone’s pain by killing them, that counts as a cure for their pain? If someone’s aging is cured temporarily and then kills them, that is a cure for aging?

predicts YES

@capybara You can decouple the rejuvenating aspect of reprogramming from cell identity changes, which would prevent cancer development. The science has advanced.

predicts NO

@capybara Not even remotely comparable

predicts NO

@Odamaron you cannot be sure that side effects don’t have long term pernicious effects on aging without an extended trial. I agree that in theory, a treatment for aging could be promising by 2030, but we couldn’t be confident by 2030.

@DanielKilian would you mind updating the description with clear and complete resolution criteria? Thanks!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Can’t see how this could possibly resolve yes. Even if a purported cure is released, then we would have to wait to see if it actually worked and didn’t kill the patient by some unexpected side effect after say 20 years.

@capybara Why would that matter? The question is only about curing aging. If it does that but has some other side effect, it still did it.

predicts NO

@LightLawliet Side effect of death? I can cure your aging but you die tomorrow…that counts as yes?

@capybara It should.