This should at the very least be equal to P(AGI pre 2030) * P (we don't all die| AGI pre 2030). Metaculus places 30% on AGI pre 2030. This implies Manifold things P(we don't all die | AGI pre 2030) is roughly 20%, which seems too low. I can see us using pre-AGI systems to cure aging even in many of the worlds where we all die months or weeks later.
This basically collapses to P(AGI pre 2030) * P (we don't die| AGI pre 2030). Aging is solved basically as soon as we get AGI and we don't die from it.
Anti-aging research gets very little funding. This can only resolve YES if researchers get very lucky, if old billionaires decide to massively increase funding, or we get transformative AI capable of biological research.
Does the cure have to be proven and available to the public by 2030 for this resolve YES?
@DanielKilian The 20% criteria is interesting. It's nicely in-between discovery and years of fighting for FDA approval. But with an end date only 8 years away, can we can avoid false-positives with just 20%? Then again, as you said, anti-aging has such a huge stigma, so hyping the population on a fake/partial/over-optimistic anti-aging cure should be much harder than hyping useless supplements.
I hope you succeed! The life extensionists I've talked to seem to brush over the negatives caused by eliminating death, but I do think it would overall be a positive change.