DanielKilian avatar
closes Dec 31, 2029
By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
12%
chance

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Nikola avatar
Nikola
is predicting YES at 7%

This should at the very least be equal to P(AGI pre 2030) * P (we don't all die| AGI pre 2030). Metaculus places 30% on AGI pre 2030. This implies Manifold things P(we don't all die | AGI pre 2030) is roughly 20%, which seems too low. I can see us using pre-AGI systems to cure aging even in many of the worlds where we all die months or weeks later.

Nikola avatar
Nikola
bought Ṁ10 of YES

This basically collapses to P(AGI pre 2030) * P (we don't die| AGI pre 2030). Aging is solved basically as soon as we get AGI and we don't die from it.

DanielKilian avatar

@Nikola Well that's exciting to think! thank you!

AmitAmin avatar
Amit Amin
bought Ṁ35 of NO

Anti-aging research gets very little funding. This can only resolve YES if researchers get very lucky, if old billionaires decide to massively increase funding, or we get transformative AI capable of biological research.

Does the cure have to be proven and available to the public by 2030 for this resolve YES?

DanielKilian avatar

@AmitAmin It just has to be proven. Right now, a "YES" resolve would mean that at least 20% of the population would agree that the 'aging' problem has been solved. Though, I think more thorough discussion should be had in this Market's comments.

DanielKilian avatar

@AmitAmin I must also add that I am actively working toward bringing forth a cure by connecting people that can affect this outcome and also changing the stigma of anti-death in the general population.

AmitAmin avatar
Amit Amin
is predicting NO at 12%

@DanielKilian The 20% criteria is interesting. It's nicely in-between discovery and years of fighting for FDA approval. But with an end date only 8 years away, can we can avoid false-positives with just 20%? Then again, as you said, anti-aging has such a huge stigma, so hyping the population on a fake/partial/over-optimistic anti-aging cure should be much harder than hyping useless supplements.

I hope you succeed! The life extensionists I've talked to seem to brush over the negatives caused by eliminating death, but I do think it would overall be a positive change.

DanielKilian avatar

@AmitAmin Thank you for the discussion! If you are willing, would you provide a few names that I might follow on twitter? Also, I may make another market in the future with a further out timeline. Full disclosure, my personal goal is to benefit by this anti-aging cure.

AmitAmin avatar
Amit Amin
is predicting NO at 12%

@DanielKilian One or more markets that are further out seems good. Haha, I'm willing, but I don't use twitter, so I have no names to provide.