
Related questions
THIS IS THE DECADE IN WHICH WE GET DRUGS DIRECTLY FOR LONGEVITY INTO THE CLINIC
Sept 2023
@LeoSpitz Sounds a bit bullshitty to me. We already have drugs that happen to consistently provide small lifespan extensions for basically everybody (e.g. statins). So yeah, we might get some more, nice, but not a fundamental change. I also don't see how you run a trial demonstrating longevity benefits that are not directly from treating a condition in <10 years. You literally have to wait for people to die of old age so unless your target population is already very old and ill this is going to take a loooong time.
@MartinModrak Yes, it is impossible to test a cure for aging in 7 years. I don’t understand how this market is still so out of touch with reality.
@jeremiahsamroo So if I stop someone’s pain by killing them, that counts as a cure for their pain? If someone’s aging is cured temporarily and then kills them, that is a cure for aging?

@DanielKilian would you mind updating the description with clear and complete resolution criteria? Thanks!
The AOH1996 drug FDA approval question has similar odds, highlighting how I think this question is too high at 25%. Surely curing cancer is a sub-goal of curing aging? Will cancer drugs be pointless after 2030?
https://manifold.markets/Tossup/will-aoh1996-be-fda-approved-before?r=Y2FweWJhcmE
Can’t see how this could possibly resolve yes. Even if a purported cure is released, then we would have to wait to see if it actually worked and didn’t kill the patient by some unexpected side effect after say 20 years.
@capybara Why would that matter? The question is only about curing aging. If it does that but has some other side effect, it still did it.
@LightLawliet Side effect of death? I can cure your aging but you die tomorrow…that counts as yes?

@slawbunnies If there was any cure to aging, billionaires would not die. Since they die all the time, there is no cure.

@slawbunnies Very interesting, hadn't heard of this before! Has there been any further work from the initial 2010 paper?
https://manifold.markets/ArunJohnson/will-300-lifespan-extension-in-roti?r=QXJ1bkpvaG5zb24
There is already a cure to all the biological mechanisms of aging taken individually. Also this market depends a lot on the propensity of people to not indulge to much in things that gives DNA damage, diabetes or strokes.

@SamuelNIHOUL I don't think it's true that we have a cure for any root mechanism of aging, let alone all of them

Not sure that even a superintelligence could make our biological bodies immortal. Nanites going in and destroying individual mutant cells and repairing DNA might be possible. But even then your brain is dependent on very old cells that can't be easily replaced because of all the connections.

@JonathanRay It's unclear if the market maker intends for "cures" to stick to biological solutions or not. I'm sure superintelligence could figure out a way to functionally replace parts or something, though the new parts might not resemble old-fashioned cells very much.

@ScroogeMcDuck Does ship-of-Theseus replacement with robot parts count as a cute for aging?

@JonathanRay I mean it functionally does, but I can imagine some people not including that if the parts are "too robotic". Alas, the (absent) market maker needs to define the taxonomy for their market.
Related questions







