By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?
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capybara avatar
capysold Ṁ1,617 of NO

The resolution criteria still isn’t clear, so I’m removing my bet.

LeoSpitz avatar
Leo Spitzpredicts NO

A LETTER FROM LAURA DEMING

THIS IS THE DECADE IN WHICH WE GET DRUGS DIRECTLY FOR LONGEVITY INTO THE CLINIC

Sept 2023

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrákpredicts NO

@LeoSpitz Sounds a bit bullshitty to me. We already have drugs that happen to consistently provide small lifespan extensions for basically everybody (e.g. statins). So yeah, we might get some more, nice, but not a fundamental change. I also don't see how you run a trial demonstrating longevity benefits that are not directly from treating a condition in <10 years. You literally have to wait for people to die of old age so unless your target population is already very old and ill this is going to take a loooong time.

capybara avatar
capypredicts NO

@MartinModrak Yes, it is impossible to test a cure for aging in 7 years. I don’t understand how this market is still so out of touch with reality.

Odamaron avatar
Odamaronpredicts YES

@capybara It’s not impossible. You can easily see age reversal very quickly via epigenetic reprogramming.

capybara avatar
capypredicts NO

@Odamaron Age reversal isn’t the same as a cure for aging. If the “cure” results in cancer development, then it’s not a cure. Another example: if the “cure” only works for 10 years, then it’s not a cure for aging. But you can’t know unless you wait and see.

jeremiahsamroo avatar
Jeremiahpredicts NO

@capybara it kind of is though

capybara avatar
capypredicts NO

@jeremiahsamroo So if I stop someone’s pain by killing them, that counts as a cure for their pain? If someone’s aging is cured temporarily and then kills them, that is a cure for aging?

Odamaron avatar
Odamaronpredicts YES

@capybara You can decouple the rejuvenating aspect of reprogramming from cell identity changes, which would prevent cancer development. The science has advanced.

jeremiahsamroo avatar
Jeremiahpredicts NO

@capybara Not even remotely comparable

capybara avatar
capypredicts NO

@Odamaron you cannot be sure that side effects don’t have long term pernicious effects on aging without an extended trial. I agree that in theory, a treatment for aging could be promising by 2030, but we couldn’t be confident by 2030.

NicoDelon avatar
Nico

@DanielKilian would you mind updating the description with clear and complete resolution criteria? Thanks!

capybara avatar
capybought Ṁ100 of NO

Can’t see how this could possibly resolve yes. Even if a purported cure is released, then we would have to wait to see if it actually worked and didn’t kill the patient by some unexpected side effect after say 20 years.

LightLawliet avatar
Light Lawliet

@capybara Why would that matter? The question is only about curing aging. If it does that but has some other side effect, it still did it.

capybara avatar
capypredicts NO

@LightLawliet Side effect of death? I can cure your aging but you die tomorrow…that counts as yes?

LightLawliet avatar
Light Lawliet

@capybara It should.

SamuelNIHOUL avatar
Samuel NIHOULbought Ṁ39 of YES

There is already a cure to all the biological mechanisms of aging taken individually. Also this market depends a lot on the propensity of people to not indulge to much in things that gives DNA damage, diabetes or strokes.

SamuelNIHOUL avatar
Samuel NIHOULpredicts YES

@SamuelNIHOUL Also brain damage... #Drugs #Chemicals

Ouroboros avatar

@SamuelNIHOUL I don't think it's true that we have a cure for any root mechanism of aging, let alone all of them

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

Not sure that even a superintelligence could make our biological bodies immortal. Nanites going in and destroying individual mutant cells and repairing DNA might be possible. But even then your brain is dependent on very old cells that can't be easily replaced because of all the connections.

ScroogeMcDuck avatar
Scrooge McDuckpredicts NO

@JonathanRay It's unclear if the market maker intends for "cures" to stick to biological solutions or not. I'm sure superintelligence could figure out a way to functionally replace parts or something, though the new parts might not resemble old-fashioned cells very much.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raypredicts NO

@ScroogeMcDuck Does ship-of-Theseus replacement with robot parts count as a cute for aging?

ScroogeMcDuck avatar
Scrooge McDuckpredicts NO

@JonathanRay I mean it functionally does, but I can imagine some people not including that if the parts are "too robotic". Alas, the (absent) market maker needs to define the taxonomy for their market.

DanielKilian avatar
Daniel Kilianpredicts YES

@ScroogeMcDuck I'd include it.