What year will there be a cure for aging?
39
130
990
9999
2052
expected

When an intervention is widely and credibly reported to cure ageing, I will run a poll asking whether it is sufficient for this poll to resolve. If I am dead then resolution is in the hands of Manifold Markets moderators.

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predicts HIGHER

I don't think we all have the same definition of cure for aging

@Simon1551 Yes, so it resolves when an intervention exists that meets most people’s definition

If I buy this, then my money get locked up forever.

But this needs to be wayyyyyyyyy lower.

predicts HIGHER

@Alana You get a loan back from Manifold proportional to your locked up money every day, so don't let that stop you

predicts LOWER

@akrasiac Specifically, 2% of the amount you invested that hasn't yet been loaned.

predicts HIGHER

@AmmonLam From the article: "Considering the average life expectancy in the USA is in the late seventies (it did dip a little bit due to COVID), those five things could add an extra five, 10, or 14 healthy years."

Cancer is also cured -- there are many drugs in development that could add 5, 10, or 14 healthy years! Same for heart disease, diabetes, every disease really.

Definitely before 2100 if we don't get all wiped out in a nuclear war before then, or from overpopulation, or because we couldn't stop climate change from rapidly make most places inhabitable, or because all the researchers, scientists and best doctors migrated to Mars so we won't ever know about it or someone will find a cure for it but they will make the cure illegal somehow to avoid overpopulation.... I'm just rambling