If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ? | Manifold

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

24

1kṀ1066

2031

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Super-intelligent AI :

"Something along the lines of -> smarter than humans at most cognitive tasks, very very good at some key tasks, and can afford to be indifferent too anything it can't do." (@Duncn's comment)

"AI that is better than majority of the humans at most economically valuable tasks, but not necessarily better than the best humans in all of those tasks."

(I created this market to gauge opinion for @Primer's question)

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

How does this resolve?

@ShadowyZephyr Resolves whenever there is such a survey and such a superintelligent AI, until then market trades according to what that survey will point to

predictedYES

@firstuserhere Who determines if an AI is superintelligent?

People are also trading

Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?

Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?

+8% 1d46% chance

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?

Will AI create the first AGI?

The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey

When artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Related questions

Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?

Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?

Will AI create the first AGI?

The probability of extremely good AGI outcomes eg. rapid human flourishing will be >24% in next AI experts survey

When artificial general intelligence (AGI) exists, what will be true?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules