Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
21
Ṁ3432300
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
39% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
53% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
38% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
34% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
61% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
21% chance
Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?
38% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
63% chance