Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
22
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38%
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One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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