Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?
14
46
แน112แน330
2300
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Get แน200 play money
Related questions
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
44% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
46% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
43% chance
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
29% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
18% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
57% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
40% chance
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
65% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
39% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
30% chance