Will we discover aliens before AGI?

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2100

12%

chance

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Aliens = alien life that originates from or lives on another planet. MUST HAVE PROOF.

AGI = Artificial General Intelligence, non-living intelligence created by us that equals or surpasses human intelligence in every respect. (Since human intelligence is not always at the same level, we're talking roughly equal here.)

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Earth-originated life that lives on another planet?

Just to be pedantic, would "lives on another planet" also include life on, say, Europa (which is a moon rather than a planet)?

predictedNO

@NLeseul Yes

Do bacteria count?

predictedNO

@Riemann Yes

I'm betting NO on this one because it specifically states "lives on another planet" (i.e. within this Universe.) I expect that the resolver will hold to this exact interpretation if the truth about how the non-human intelligence exists is more complicated.